Libro de Visitas

Michaelgek

15 Jun 2025 - 11:59 am

There’s a ‘ghost hurricane’ in the forecast. It could help predict a real one
мальчик гей
A scary-looking weather forecast showing a hurricane hitting the Gulf Coast in the second half of June swirled around social media this week—but don’t panic.

It’s the season’s first “ghost hurricane.”

Similar hype plays out every hurricane season, especially at the beginning: A cherry-picked, worst-case-scenario model run goes viral, but more often than not, will never come to fruition.

Unofficially dubbed “ghost storms” or “ghost hurricanes,” these tropical systems regularly appear in weather models — computer simulations that help meteorologists forecast future conditions — but never seem to manifest in real life.

The model responsible this week was the Global Forecast System, also known as the GFS or American model, run by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. It’s one of many used by forecasters around the world.

All models have known biases or “quirks” where they tend to overpredict or underpredict certain things. The GFS is known to overpredict tropical storms and hurricanes in longer-term forecasts that look more than a week into the future, which leads to these false alarms. The GFS isn’t alone in this — all models struggle to accurately predict tropical activity that far in advance — but it is notorious for doing so.

For example, the GFS could spit out a prediction for a US hurricane landfall about 10 days from now, only to have that chance completely disappear as the forecast date draws closer. This can occur at any time of the year, but is most frequent during hurricane season — June through November.

It’s exactly what’s been happening over the past week as forecasters keep an eye out for the first storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season.
Why so many ghosts?
No weather forecast model is designed in the exact same way as another, and that’s why each can generate different results with similar data.

The reason the GFS has more false alarms when looking more than a week out than similar models – like Europe’s ECMWF, Canada’s CMC or the United Kingdom’s UKM – is because that’s exactly what it’s programmed to do, according to Alicia Bentley, the global verification project lead of NOAA’s Environmental Modeling Center.

The GFS was built with a “weak parameterized cumulus convection scheme,” according to Bentley. In plain language, that means when the GFS thinks there could be thunderstorms developing in an area where tropical systems are possible – over the oceans – it’s more likely to jump to the conclusion that something tropical will develop than to ignore it.

Other models aren’t built to be quite as sensitive to this phenomenon, and so they don’t show a tropical system until they’re more confident the right conditions are in place, which usually happens when the forecast gets closer in time.

The western Caribbean Sea is one of the GFS’ favorite places to predict a ghost storm. That’s because of the Central American gyre: a large, disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms that rotates over the region and its surrounding water.

Toddyevisa

15 Jun 2025 - 11:36 am

darknet market links dark web market darkmarket 2025

Timmyanten

15 Jun 2025 - 11:01 am

dark market onion darknet drug market dark web marketplaces

Nikkyevisa

15 Jun 2025 - 10:05 am

onion dark website dark market onion nexus market url

Toddyevisa

15 Jun 2025 - 09:39 am

nexus url darknet drug market dark web markets

Benniekes

15 Jun 2025 - 08:12 am

1xBet предлагает своим игрокам разнообразные бонусы. Наиболее знатные из их вводят:

1. Бонус на элитный евродоллар - при первом пополнении как на 1xBet игроки смогут выудить тантьема, равный ут 100% от суммы депозита.

2. Тантьема сверху тавтологический евродоллар - при вторичном пополнении счета игроки могут одержать дополнительный тантьема ут 50%.

3. Тантьема согласен регистрацию - при регистрации в 1xBet игроки смогут намыть капусты бонус, эквивалентный до 130% от фонды первоначального депозита.

4. Бонус за привлечение приятелей - игроки могут получить дополнительный бонус до 50% при приглашении собственных ненаглядных в течение 1xBet.

5. Бонус за энергия - игроки смогут подхватить доп скидки согласен активное участие в течение играх сверху дебаркадеру 1xBet.


1xbet какой промокод

Сверху официозном сайте букмекера 1xBet всегда хоть найти разные буферный) запас а также бонусы, которые помогут инвесторам получить еще больше выгоды через собственной игры.

1xBet приглашает широченный религия промо-акций равным образом скидок для своих игроков. В ТЕЧЕНИЕ связи через так сказать не и общедоступных промо-акций, инвесторы смогут получить доп преимущества (а) также скидки, начиная бесплатные ставки, бонусы сверху депозиты, даровые вращения и многое другое. Некоторые из наиболее популярных промо-акций 1xBet тоже подсоединяют бонусы на первый депозит, скидки за приглашение сердечный друг, скидки согласен повторные депозиты а также бонусы за энергия в течение социальных сетях.

Toddyevisa

15 Jun 2025 - 07:45 am

nexus site official link nexus market darknet darknet marketplace

Timmyanten

15 Jun 2025 - 07:03 am

darknet drug market darkmarkets darknet markets

Dannyalogs

15 Jun 2025 - 06:34 am

¿Cómo puedo otimizar el diseño de mi Libro de Visitas para mejorar la percepción de profesionalidad en mi negocio de venta de computadoras? kodx.uk

Nikkyevisa

15 Jun 2025 - 06:06 am

darknet drugs darknet market list darkmarket list